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NASCAR has conjured up some new wrinkles for the qualifying and open portions of the 2022 NASCAR All-Star Race at Texas Motor Speedway this weekend, including head-to-head pit road races to determine the pole for the open. But at the end of the day, it will be good ol' fashioned racing that determines who takes home the $1 million prize. There are 20 drivers who have already qualified for the 2022 NASCAR All-Star Race field by way of a win in 2021 or 2022, one driver who will get in by way of the fan vote and three more spots up for grabs during the open format. That portion of the 2022 NASCAR All-Star Race begins at 5:30 p.m. ET, while the 24-car race for $1 million is scheduled to begin at 8 p.m. ET on FS1 (stream now on FuboTV).

Kyle Larson has won the last two all-star races that he's been a part of and the defending NASCAR Cup Series champion is the 9-2 favorite in the 2022 NASCAR All-Star Race odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Hendrick Motorsports has looked like the dominant team in NASCAR in recent years and Larson's teammates Chase Elliott (15-2), William Byron (9-1) and Alex Bowman (15-1) are all near the top of the NASCAR odds board as well. Before scouring the 2022 NASCAR All-Star Race starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Texas predictions, be sure to see the latest 2022 NASCAR All-Star Race at Texas picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then, it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure's model also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season-finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship.

In total, it nailed five of Larson's wins during a historic season and has also gone 15-9 on its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Earlier this season it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. Two weeks ago, the model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns on their NASCAR picks.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR All-Star Race (see tickets at StubHub) 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 NASCAR All-Star Race at Texas leaderboard.

One surprise: the model is high on Kevin Harvick, even though he's a 25-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Texas odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 46-year-old is a 58-time winner in the NASCAR Cup Series and won the championship in 2014. He's also the only driver in the field with multiple NASCAR All-Star Race wins under his belt other than Larson.

Harvick won the race in 2007 and 2018, with both of those races taking place at Charlotte Motor Speedway. However, he's also experienced plenty of success at Texas Motor Speedway, with 24 top-10 finishes in 37 Cup starts there and three victories. Harvick has finished top eight in every points race at Texas but one since 2016 and collected all three of his wins at TMS during that span. 

And a massive shocker: William Byron, one of the Vegas favorites at 9-1, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top 10. There are far better values in the 2022 NASCAR All-Star Race lineup. Byron is one of only two drivers (along with Ross Chastain) with two wins this season and that virtually guarantees his spot in the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs. However, he hasn't been running particularly well of late.

Byron has finished outside the top 10 in each of his last five starts and has now been outside the top 10 in nine of the 13 total races this season. He's also been outside the top 10 in four of his last six points races at Texas and finished a disappointing seventh despite leading 30 laps at the 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race.

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2022 NASCAR at Texas odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the NASCAR All-Star Race 2022? And which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR at Texas odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 NASCAR All-Star Race leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson's wins last season. 

Kyle Larson 9-2 Kyle Busch 7-1 Chase Elliott 15-2 William Byron 9-1 Martin Truex Jr. 9-1 Denny Hamlin 10-1 Ross Chastain 10-1 Ryan Blaney 12-1 Joey Logano 15-1 Christopher Bell 15-1 Alex Bowman 15-1 Kurt Busch 18-1 Kevin Harvick 25-1 Austin Cindric 40-1 Bubba Wallace 50-1 Chase Briscoe 60-1 Brad Keselowski 60-1 Aric Almirola 75-1 A.J. Allmendinger 100-1 Michael McDowell 300-1

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